Sehingga 21 Oktober, harga spot emas London didagangkan pada $4,360.82 setiap auns, naik 2.90% daripada hari dagangan sebelumnya, mencapai paras tertinggi harian pada $4,381.11 setiap auns. Harga emas domestik juga meningkat, dengan kontrak T+D emas didagangkan pada 996.36 yuan setiap gram, peningkatan 2.35% pada hari itu. （金価格）

Lonjakan ini telah membawa peningkatan terkumpul dalam harga emas pada 2025 kepada lebih 60%, menjadikannya tahun terkuat sejak 1979. Tiga faktor yang mendorong harga emas—jangkaan pemotongan kadar Rizab Persekutuan, pembelian emas bank pusat global dan risiko geopolitik—secara kolektif membentuk semula landskap pasaran logam berharga.

Pasaran emas mengalami prestasi yang luar biasa pada minggu ketiga bulan Oktober. Dari 19 hingga 21 Oktober, harga emas mengalami beberapa siri kejayaan.

Pada 19 Oktober, harga emas spot stabil pada $4,247, dan keesokan harinya (20 Oktober) ia mengalami pertumbuhan yang meletup. Pada akhir dagangan New York, emas spot melonjak $104.81, keuntungan harian 2.47%, untuk ditutup pada $4,355.72 setiap auns.

Tiga kuasa memacu rali pemecahan rekod emas.

Jangkaan pemotongan kadar Rizab Persekutuan adalah pemacu utama kenaikan harga emas. Menurut alat “FedWatch” CME, pasaran menjangkakan 95.67% kebarangkalian pemotongan kadar 25 mata asas pada bulan Oktober dan 94.64% kebarangkalian penurunan kadar yang lain pada bulan Disember.

“Persekitaran kadar faedah yang rendah dengan ketara mengurangkan kos peluang untuk memegang emas tanpa faedah, memacu kemasukan dana yang berterusan ke dalam pasaran emas,” kata penganalisis HuaAn Fund.

Pembelian emas bank pusat global telah memberikan sokongan padu untuk harga emas. Data daripada Majlis Emas Dunia menunjukkan bahawa bank pusat global bersih membeli 890 tan emas dalam tiga suku pertama 2025, peningkatan paling kukuh sejak 1979.

Bank Rakyat China telah meningkatkan pegangan emasnya selama 11 bulan berturut-turut, dengan rizab emas mencecah 74.06 juta auns pada akhir September. 95% daripada bank pusat yang dikaji menjangkakan bank pusat global akan terus meningkatkan pegangan emas mereka dalam tempoh 12 bulan akan datang.

Risiko geopolitik juga meningkatkan harga emas. Penutupan kerajaan AS selama 20 hari telah menangguhkan pengeluaran data ekonomi utama, memburukkan lagi ketidaktentuan ekonomi. Ketidaktentuan yang berterusan dalam rundingan perdagangan AS-China, ditambah dengan konflik yang semakin memuncak di Timur Tengah, telah mendorong aliran selamat ke dalam pasaran emas.

Bank pusat global meningkatkan pegangan emas mereka pada tahap rekod, mencerminkan keraguan struktur mengenai aset rizab tradisional. Data Dana Kewangan Antarabangsa (IMF) menunjukkan bahawa menjelang akhir suku kedua 2025, bahagian rizab pertukaran asing global dolar AS telah jatuh kepada 56.32%, paras terendah sejak 1995.

Laporan daripada Forum Rasmi Monetari dan Institusi Kewangan (OMFIF) menunjukkan bahawa antara 75 bank pusat dunia, yang menguruskan aset $5 trilion, satu pertiga merancang untuk meningkatkan rizab emas mereka dalam tempoh satu hingga dua tahun akan datang, paras tertinggi lima tahun.

As of October 21st, London gold spot prices were trading at $4,360.82 per ounce, up 2.90% from the previous trading day, reaching an intraday high of $4,381.11 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also rose, with gold T+D contracts trading at 996.36 yuan per gram, a 2.35% increase on the day.

This surge has brought the cumulative increase in gold prices (金価格)in 2025 to over 60%, making it the strongest year since 1979. Three factors driving gold prices—expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a global central bank gold buying spree, and geopolitical risks—are collectively reshaping the precious metals market landscape.

The gold market experienced a remarkable performance in the third week of October. From October 19th to 21st, gold prices experienced a series of breakthroughs.

On October 19th, the spot gold price stabilized at $4,247, and the next day (October 20th) it experienced explosive growth. In late New York trading, spot gold surged $104.81, a 2.47% daily gain, to close at $4,355.72 per ounce.

Triple forces are driving gold’s record-breaking rally.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut are the primary driver of gold’s price increase. According to the CME “FedWatch” tool, the market expects a 95.67% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 94.64% probability of another rate cut in December.

“The low interest rate environment significantly reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, driving a continued influx of funds into the gold market,” HuaAn Fund analysts noted.

The global central bank gold buying spree has provided solid support for gold prices. Data from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks net bought 890 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, the strongest increase since 1979.

The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, with gold reserves reaching 74.06 million ounces at the end of September. 95% of the central banks surveyed expect global central banks to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months.

Geopolitical risks are also boosting gold prices. The 20-day US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, exacerbating economic uncertainty. Continued uncertainty in US-China trade negotiations, coupled with escalating conflict in the Middle East, has driven safe-haven flows into the gold market.

Global central banks are increasing their gold holdings at a record level, reflecting structural doubts about traditional reserve assets. International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that by the end of the second quarter of 2025, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves had fallen to 56.32%, the lowest level since 1995.

A report from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) shows that among the world’s 75 central banks, managing $5 trillion in assets, one-third plan to increase their gold reserves in the next one to two years, a five-year high.

On the 15th local time, international gold prices (金価格)continued their upward trend, supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased safe-haven demand driven by global trade tensions. London spot gold prices hit a new intraday high of $4,200.23 per ounce. New York gold futures were trading above $4,200 per ounce. As of 3:10 PM Beijing time on the 15th, London spot gold prices were at $4,200.14 per ounce, a 1.4% increase on the day.

December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were at $4,218.21 per ounce, a 1.32% increase on the day. So far this year, geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a surge in gold purchases by major central banks worldwide, and increased holdings of gold ETFs have contributed to a surge in international gold prices exceeding 55%. Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale recently predicted that gold prices will reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered Bank has raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4,488 per ounce.

Driven by the surge in gold prices, silver prices have risen rapidly this year. As of Monday’s close, London spot silver closed at $52.27 per ounce, a year-to-date increase of 76.53%, surpassing gold’s cumulative gains.

The yen depreciated again to 152.

On October 7th, the yen fell to 152 yen per dollar in the New York foreign exchange market, reaching this level for the first time in approximately eight months since mid-February. Concerns about the proactive fiscal and loose monetary policies advocated by Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi led investors to continue selling the yen, creating a phenomenon known as “high-market trading.”

The yen also hit a new all-time low against the euro, reaching 177.10 yen per euro, a level of yen depreciation and euro appreciation since the euro’s creation in 1999.

The yen also hit a new all-time low against the euro, reaching 177.10 yen per euro, a level of yen depreciation and euro appreciation since the euro’s creation in 1999.

Esuro Honda, one of Takaichi’s economic advisors and a former member of the Cabinet Secretariat, said in an interview with Bloomberg on the 6th, “If the yen exceeds 150 yen per dollar, it might be a bit excessive.” Influenced by these remarks, the yen briefly rebounded to the 150 yen range on the 7th, but yen selling once again took hold in New York trading.

The yen’s continued depreciation is driven by the widespread market belief that Japan’s loose monetary environment will persist. Honda also expressed her understanding in the interview, stating that it would be “difficult” for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on October 29th and 30th.

As early as last year during the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, Takaichi stated, “Raising interest rates now would be foolish,” attempting to deter the BoJ from raising rates too quickly. In her speech on October 4th, she reiterated that “the government bears responsibility (for monetary policy)” and stated, “The Japanese economy is on an extremely dangerous edge,” signaling caution against excessive monetary tightening.

In the US market, some institutions believe that, while the extent of Takaichi’s involvement in the BoJ’s operations remains unclear, her fundamental views on monetary policy appear to have remained unchanged.

This concern has fueled persistent selling pressure on the yen in the market, becoming the primary factor behind its continued weakness.

Currently USD/NZD price has risen to 1.7400。

source: NZD

Data jointly released by Bank Negara Malaysia and the Department of Statistics Malaysia on August 15th showed that despite a complex and volatile external environment, Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, the same as in the first quarter, thanks to strong domestic demand and continued growth in the services and manufacturing sectors. This continued the solid growth momentum. While slightly lower than the Department of Statistics’ earlier forecast of 4.5%, it was higher than the market expectation of 4.3%. Seasonally adjusted, GDP grew by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, higher than the 0.7% growth in the first quarter. This growth, achieved amidst significant global economic uncertainty, demonstrates the resilience and stability of the Malaysian economy.

Strong domestic demand expansion is one of the key factors driving economic growth. Data shows that increased household spending is the primary driver of domestic demand growth in Malaysia. Supported by a strong labor market, household consumption grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, while public consumption grew by 6.4%. Policy measures implemented by the Malaysian government, such as raising the minimum wage and adjusting civil servant salaries, have further enhanced consumer purchasing power and boosted the consumer market. In addition, increased household consumption also boosted the retail, catering, and entertainment sectors. Private investment and public investment also grew by 10.2% and 6.8%, respectively.

The service and manufacturing sectors performed strongly. Data showed that the service sector grew by 5.1% year-on-year, becoming one of the main drivers of economic growth. The robust performance of sub-sectors such as wholesale and retail, and food and beverages drove growth in the service sector. Despite a slowdown in manufacturing growth, it still achieved a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Industries such as electrical, electronic, and optical products maintained sustained growth. Furthermore, the agriculture and construction sectors also saw growth of 2.1% and 12.1%, respectively.

The labor market performed stably. As of May 2025, Malaysia’s total employment increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 16.86 million. The unemployment rate remained at 3%, down 5.7% from the same period last year, demonstrating a strong recovery in the labor market. The labor force participation rate also rose to 70.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from 70.6% in the same period last year. A stable labor market not only provided strong support for household consumption but also promoted sustainable economic growth.

While Malaysia’s trade performance faced some challenges in the second quarter, there were some bright spots. Net exports plummeted by 72.6% in the second quarter due to a decline in commodity exports, particularly those related to the mining industry. However, strong exports of electrical and electronic products partially offset the overall decline in exports. Furthermore, uncertainties and risks surrounding the US tariff increase persist, and the full impact will take time to materialize. However, Malaysia’s key role in regional supply chains and trade cooperation with other countries provide some cushion for its export markets.

In terms of prices, inflation remained moderate in Malaysia in the second quarter. Overall inflation fell to 1.3% from 1.5% in the first quarter, while core inflation remained at 1.8%. Lower fuel prices and slower food price increases were the main drivers of the decline. This moderate inflation environment provides stability for consumer purchasing power and provides room for monetary policy adjustments. The Bank of Malaysia expects overall inflation to remain moderate this year, ranging from 1.5% to 2.3%.

Analysts point out that the Malaysian economy will continue to face challenges in the second half of this year. Economists anticipate a further slowdown in exports, leading to a decline in economic growth. However, continued growth in domestic demand and stable investment activity will provide some support to the economy. Furthermore, the recovery of the tourism industry and the advancement of infrastructure projects will inject new impetus into the economy. Bank Negara Malaysia stated that while economic growth is driven by strong household spending and positive labor market conditions, the uncertainty surrounding the US government’s tariff increase makes forecasting challenging.